Vietnam U20 faces historic risk: Worst campaign in 16 years and a do-or-die battle with Iran

Vietnam's youth football is experiencing one of the biggest shocks in its history of AFC U20 Asian Cup qualifying. After just two matches in Group C, coach Ikeuchi's side suffered consecutive defeats to North Korea (0-3) and Palestine (1-2), sitting at the bottom of the group with 0 points and a -4 goal difference. This is Vietnam U20's worst start since 2026 – the year they lost heavily to Australia and Jordan but still managed a 17-0 win over Guam. This time, there is no weak opponent to 'release pressure.' The door to the 2027 U20 Asian Cup finals in China is closing, and if they fail to beat Iran on September 6, Vietnam not only faces elimination but also risks dropping to the development round – a new tier for the six worst-performing teams in the region, introduced from 2026. The context of this campaign is particularly harsh. AFC has changed the format: instead of straight elimination, the six lowest-ranked teams across all groups will be relegated to the development round – where chances of qualifying for the finals are almost zero. Vietnam has never been in this situation. In the 12 qualifying campaigns since 2026, they have always recorded at least one win. But this year, two straight losses and only one goal scored make it the worst record in history. Looking back: in 2026, Vietnam lost to Japan 0-10 but beat Chinese Taipei; in 2026, lost to Australia 0-6 and Jordan 0-3 but beat Guam 17-0; in 2026, lost to China 1-4 and Thailand 1-2 but beat Guam 3-0; in 2026, lost to South Korea 0-6 and Malaysia 1-2 but beat Chinese Taipei 2-0; in 2026, lost to Japan 0-7 and Indonesia 1-2 but beat Macau 4-0; in 2026, lost to UAE 0-2 and Iraq 0-1 but beat Chinese Taipei 5-0; in 2026, lost to South Korea 0-3 and Australia 1-2 but beat Brunei 8-0; in 2026, lost to Japan 0-2 and Mongolia 0-1 but beat Guam 4-0; in 2026, lost to Saudi Arabia 0-3 and China 0-2 but beat Maldives 4-0; in 2026, lost to Iran 0-1 and Qatar 1-2 but beat Chinese Taipei 2-0. Every time, there was a win to cling to hope. This time, there is none. Tactical analysis reveals problems beyond just results. The 0-3 loss to North Korea exposed large gaps in defense: goals came from fast counter-attacks and positional errors by center-backs. The 1-2 loss to Palestine showed poor chance conversion: Vietnam had at least three clear opportunities in the first half but scored only once, while the opposition capitalized on individual mistakes. Statistics from the two matches show Vietnam U20's chance conversion rate is only 12%, far below the group average of 28%. Physical fitness is also an issue: in the second half, players visibly tired, leading to lapses in concentration. This raises questions about the fitness regimen and squad management of the coaching staff. However, not everything is bleak. A contrarian view: early failure could be a necessary bitter pill for Vietnamese youth football. Coach Ikeuchi, who previously led Japan's youth teams and was chosen by VFF for his long-term development philosophy, understands best that qualifying results are only part of a bigger picture. He was recommended by JFA based on his experience training players from U15 to U17, and VFF has emphasized that youth football requires consistency. This campaign may fail, but if Ikeuchi builds a technical and tactical foundation for this generation, the payoff will come in the next cycle. Historical data shows Japan went through similar failures before emerging as a youth football powerhouse. Vietnam needs patience, not a knee-jerk sacking. Takeaway: The match against Iran on September 6 is a do-or-die battle. If they win, Vietnam could climb to second or third place, hoping for a best runner-up spot. If they lose or draw, the door almost closes, and the risk of relegation to the development round is very high. But regardless of the result, this is a wake-up call for Vietnam's entire youth development system: we are falling behind the region and need fundamental reforms from the grassroots. Look at how Iran, North Korea, and Palestine invest in their U20 squads – they are not only physically stronger but also tactically organized. Vietnam made progress under coach Park Hang-seo at senior level, but youth football remains a missing piece. The question is: will we dare to face this failure and change, or will we continue to blame luck?