Red Bull's Hadjar dilemma: Montoya urges keeping Lawson, banking on 'new track' in Madrid

At Zandvoort last weekend, I sat in the media area, watching Liam Lawson step out of the RB21 after qualifying. He'd had just one practice session with the team, but the timing sheet showed something undeniable: the gap to Max Verstappen was tiny. I was reminded of the defeat at Luzhniki in 2026, when I called the wrong formation and was fiercely criticized by the audience. The lesson from that day is simple: don't rush to conclusions without enough data. But with Lawson, the data, though sparse, already speaks volumes. The context of this story begins with Isack Hadjar's wrist injury. The French driver, sitting 8th in the standings with 68 points, was forced to sit out in the Netherlands. Red Bull called up Lawson at the last minute, and to fill the gap at Racing Bulls, Yuki Tsunoda was promoted, with Arvid Lindblad taking Tsunoda's seat. A typical domino effect within Red Bull's driver development ecosystem — where every seat is a link in a long-term plan. Lawson seized his opportunity perfectly. Not only did he stay close to Verstappen in qualifying, but he also finished 7th, scoring six valuable points. Juan Pablo Montoya, a former F1 driver, has publicly urged Red Bull on F1 TV's Weekend Warm-Up to keep Lawson for a few more races. Montoya's argument is clear: let Hadjar recover fully, don't risk an unhealed wrist. And more importantly, prepare Lawson properly for the Madrid race — where every driver starts from zero. I see Montoya's proposal through the lens of someone who has followed hundreds of matches, from athletics tracks to football pitches. In football, there's an immutable principle: never rush a player just back from injury into a big match if he isn't physically and mentally ready. The track and the pitch are not opposites; they are two rhythms of the same heart. The same logic applies to Hadjar: an incompletely healed wrist won't just affect his ability to steer the wheel, but will also erode his confidence — something that, at 300 km/h, leaves no room for hesitation. The key point Montoya makes — and I believe this is the most valuable contrarian angle — is the 'new track' factor. Madring in Madrid will host its inaugural Grand Prix. No driver, not even Verstappen or Lewis Hamilton, has any real experience there. This completely neutralizes Hadjar's accumulated advantage — his 68 points versus Lawson's 49 reflect a longer tenure, not necessarily superior pace. When everyone starts from zero, the value of experience is leveled, and the value of current form — which Lawson possesses — is multiplied. I don't believe in luck; I believe in numbers lined up in a row. And the current numbers suggest Red Bull faces a difficult puzzle: keep Lawson to capitalize on his form, or wait for Hadjar's recovery to respect the existing hierarchy? But there's another piece of data I believe the team management should pay special attention to: the 130-point gap between Kimi Antonelli (242 points) and Verstappen (112 points) in the standings. Mercedes has left the rest behind, and in that context, an unstable second seat could cost Red Bull valuable points in the fight for the runner-up position. I once witnessed Werder Bremen struggle to survive relegation during the empty-stadium season, where home advantage became a perfect zero. When the stands are empty, sport strips away its outer layer and reveals its skeleton. Similarly, when a substitute driver is given an unexpected opportunity, we see his true value — no perfect preparation, no team expectations, only skill and nerve. Lawson passed the first test brilliantly. But one qualifying session and one race is too small a sample to conclude. The real question Red Bull needs to answer isn't 'Hadjar or Lawson?', but 'how to achieve the stability needed for the 2026 season?'. With major technical regulation changes approaching, teams need a settled driver lineup for continuous development. The current turmoil — four drivers rotating through two seats — is a clear competitive disadvantage. Montoya may be right in advising Red Bull to prioritize Hadjar's full recovery, but I think he's even more right in implicitly pointing out that the driver market doesn't buy the present; it buys promises of the future. And Red Bull's future needs a clearer answer than ever.